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Union Berlin vs M'gladbach

Sat 22 May 2027, 13:30 UTC · Round 34 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Union Berlin win: 48.6%

Draw: 25.1%

M'gladbach win: 26.3%

Predicted: Union Berlin

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 54.3%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 56.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.04

More corners: Union Berlin (53.5% home / 46.5% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: M'gladbach

Yes

Probability M'gladbach wins or draws: 57.9%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Union Berlin Clearest lean of the available outcomes (49% vs next-best 26%). (49.0% model probability) Medium

Total Goals Over 2.5 (56.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat M'gladbach win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (58.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.